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News/Business. Becky Quick, Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin. Business news and talk as the trading day unfolds on Wall Street. New. (CC)

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03:00:00

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TOPIC FREQUENCY

Sandy 27, Romney 24, Jack Welch 21, New York 19, Obama 18, U.s. 12, Europe 12, China 10, Becky 10, Ohio 8, America 7, Rob Portman 7, Joe 6, Roger 6, John Eichberger 6, Pimco 6, Florida 6, Roger Altman 6, Cnbc 6, S&p 5,
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  CNBC    Squawk Box    News/Business. Becky Quick, Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin.  
   Business news and talk as the trading day unfolds on Wall...  

    November 5, 2012
    6:00 - 8:59am EST  

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good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin and today mark as full week since sandy battered the northeast. mass transit and power lines are slowly coming back. here is fema's administrator. >> this will not be done in a year. this is a long term commitment. >> gas lines still stretch for miles in many parts of the new jersey area, but officials say that more fuel is moving in. >> there will be more of a supply of again and more of a distribution. >> this morning we are searching for solutions asking what can be done differently to make sure everything from gasoline shortages to mass power disruptions don't happen again. our kate kelly will join us from new jersey in just a moment. also among our guests, john ike burger of the national association of convenience stores. his members sell 80% of all the gasoline in the united states. now making the cleanup and recovery even more difficult, we
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have forecasters warning that a harsh nor'easter is on the way. we'll have a live report from the weather chan nenel in 20 minutes. amid all the problems is tomorrow is election day. the candidates are making a final push in six swing states. the latest poll shows the race is in a dead heat. barely favoring the president in most cases. reuters is reporting similar margins in florida, virginia, colorado and ohio. >> governor romney has been having a tough time here in ohio because everybody knows he was against saving the auto industry. you don't scare people just to scare up some votes. >> i can't wait for us to get started. he's hoping we'll settle. americans don't settle. we build, we aspire, we dream, we listen to that voice that says we can do better. >> john harwood will join us with more. and then we'll focus on pot
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ticks with jack welch. romney campaign adviser senator rob portman and roger altman. so obviously a full lineup to get through all of this. andrew and joe, back over to you. >> let's check on the markets this morning. futures are indicated lower. as i've been pointing out for a while, there is a labor day indicator that jim stack and others have pointed to. and 25 out of 28 times, if the dow jones industrial average was below where it was the friday before labor day, the incumbent loses. and that number 13, 091 and the dow closed at 13,093. so two points above. >> do you think it was sandy? >> i don't know what it was. turned around and it was down 140 points. which both sides were arguing, you know, one said it went up,
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but the rate came down. this time it was a stronger jobs number, but the rate went up. >> better than expected jobs report. >> but the month before was the worse than expected jobs report that they called better because of the -- >> can i comment on the tie? >> how does it look? >> looks good. >> but it's too thick for you. >> give me the one that you got because you don't wear ties that are -- >> i have it slimmed down. >> let's look at europe this morning. you can see in the ftse in france and the dax all trading down. all less than a percentage point. in asia, take a quick look to update you. unless you want to go to the oil board ons. there's the asian markets. down except for korea.
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and then oil which curiously even even after the storm we didn't see what most thought would happen. $85. ten year continues to be manipulated. 1.69%. although there's nothing in the global economy to suggest that this needs to immediately spike. and there's the dollar. gold still below 1700 at this point. >> becky had mentioned the gas lines. and among the reasons for the supply issues, trouble at the terminals. these are the storage facilities that gather and dids tribute gasoline and jet fuel for new york metropolitan region. more than a dozen terminals in and around new york's harbor remain inoperable. handicapped by flooding and power short annuals.
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we have kate kelly online joining us from new jersey with more on the choke holds. kate. >> behind me you can see just breaking dawn at morning harbor which reopened to petroleum vessels just a few days ago. barges have been bringing in fuel since thursday and military trucks brought in thousands of gallons of gas over the weekend. but none of it has p stopped the anxiety for those still waiting hours in line for fuel. a big part of the problem is the gas infrastructure which remains badly damaged. this is home to nearly 20 different terminals where refined products are transported and held until trucks and ships can pick them up for delivery to gas stations and airports in the region. power outages, flooding and
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physical damage has knocked many out. in northern new jersey, it appeared poised for reopening this week. they were getting a barge delivery. but these developments are happening too closely for frustrated drivers who are still lining up and in some cases picking fights over the limited gas supplies. a new jersey effort to sort fuel buyers by license plate flared tempers and two brooklyn cops landed in the hospital after angry drivers struck them over the weekend. but there may be one silver lining, guy. gas prices have actually dropped about 20 cents in the last two weeks. >> kate kelly, thank you for the report. were you able to get gas? >> it was still very long lines yesterday, but i did notice this
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morning there were a couple stations on my way in that had next to no lines. i don't know if it's changed, but hundreds of glastations tha have come back on line. >> i got gas easily on friday because we got the line on one that opened on the palisades. so i filled up. but near my,000 there was a place where there was a one mile long line the entire time and what's who are disconcerting is seeing all the people maybe 100 people waiting in line for gas cans and the guy didn't have any gas, but gas was expected. so they were just waiting there five, six hours just waiting for gas to -- that's really frustrating. >> supposedly over a million customers in new york and new jersey who still don't have power that -- still 800,000
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people just in new jersey waiting for power to come back online. the gas lines again, though, this morning there was hope, but i wondered if by rush hour that was -- >> we had two nine day outages and then they always do short hills last. >> we had two seven day outages. >> these people can wait. perfect. i don't know who is running the -- how they decide where to go first, but i think it's got -- it makes it more fair because these people have so much and so they should wait. they have all these big houses and -- >> although there are areas that the mayor's now -- >> my parents still don't have electricity either. >> makes sense. the 1%ers can wait. this is a chance where we can -- >> it's not just that. there are people that the mayor is now having to talk about moving people out of the areas. >> people in staten island who are out of housing. >> i'm not complaining. but i went into this place to
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try to get a quart of oil for the generator and people saw me walking in. and i went like this. i don't have any gas cans! i don't have a car! i'm going for oil! i'm just looking for oil! >> better not cut in line. >> i'm afraid to go in. i don't have a gas can anywhere. and then i watched walking dead. >> bad idea. >> you were trying to put yourself back in the mood? >> no, what if the world -- what if the grid were to go down for six months because of a solar flare or an act of terrorism? >> act of terrorism is what they were saying. >> you're not waiting in line for gas, but you're waiting this line for food. >> i have to say every time we
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go through one of these things, i do end up storing more food and more water in the basement. >> i know. i'm goingfingerprints today for my background check. if you looked at gun sales? >> no comments. you know my views on this. >> but look what's happening -- depending on the election, a lot of people may need to buy guns now because maybe you won't be able to buy them as easily in the future. right? >> there are some people selling stocks that have high capital gains because they don't want it pay later. so -- trying to bring it in m. to the business realm. >> the gun stocks trade. >> that's true. >> ruger and -- >> how are the gun stocks doing? >> they've been going up. and so have sales. spike. i don't want you to get uncomfortable. >> i'm not a gun guy. >> it's in the bill of rights. it's as been the right of a citizen to bear arms, right?
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that makes you uncomfortable? >> i'm a nervous nilly on guns. i am. >> why? >> for a citizen to own a gun? >> just makes me anxious. i just get anxious about it. i'm telling you how i feel. i feel anxious -- >> i can see that. >> let's talk about some of the global headlines. the 18th national congress starts on thursday ushering in a new generation of leaders that will govern for the next ten years. the current vice president ping and vice premiere are expected to become the next president and premiere. taking over from wen. >> did you see we nechlt has ordered an investigation into his own family?
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>> based on the "new york times" report. >> wide ranging investigation there. oh, they found nothing. i can't believe it. these are the next premiere and president or the next billionaires to be in china? >> both. >> exactly. >> after rereading that report, he almost divorced his wife over abusing her power. so i actually think it's possible -- >> in close. >> how could he not know what she owns? >> my only point is it's possible that the investigation is not simply a white wash. i doubt he's going to go along with the whole thing. >> you know you can't own a gun in china. makes it much harder to an communistic country if and you are able to on own a gun. >> i don't think you can own a gun in london either. >> plenty of places. usually the first thing an au autocrat does. the last thing you need if you're going to have a
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dictatorship. anyway -- >> also toyota is raising its full year profit forecast, but the automaker says the recent anti-japanese protests and slowing economy cost the he company lost sales of about 200,000 cars. >> and in europe, the prime minister says talks of greece exiting the euro will end after critical votes on austerity measures and reforms. the measure needs to be passed to receive aid. and let's talk about google. google is now -- >> li kuchang. is how you pronounce it. >> google is warning about a new german copy write bill. leading a growing movement to let newspaper publishers charge internet search engines for displaying links to their articles. the financial times is reporting that google says this could cause an internet news blackout. german bill would give newspapers and magazine publishers the right to stop
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search engines and if they refuse to pay royalties. so you wouldn't be able to find news articles unless google pays the news organizations themselves. an interesting situation. >> a way around payrolls right now. if you want an article and it's on the "wall street journal" or one of these sites that charge, put it in google, you can find it anyway. >> but the wall street journal does that on purpose. so the "wall street journal" does that on purpose, and that's the idea is to let you in -- sort of there's a wall. the idea is to at the time you hooked. >> why would i ever pay if i can find what i want for free? >> if you literally for every single article in the wall straet journal website will go to google to do it, that's kind of annoying. do you know what i'm saying? the idea is is that people become subscribers. that's the goal. the goal is to introduce you to
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the content. >> kelly evans is tweeting and i just read something here that, kelly, standing by in london, we were just talking about this transition in china, too. and we said we now know the names of the next two billionaires to be. i bet you we would be -- you say that eunice said every time we start talking about the transition here on cnbc in china, it's blacked out. i think i just got blacked out. >> i thought it was a fascinating point. eunice mentioned every time cnbc in china is talking about this issue, it's blacked out, so, yes, i imagine it includes us. >> that hurts me a little bit. i'm sure "squawk box" has fans in china. and we need to get through. >> the real question is whether you guys or on the "squawk box" asia group is more popular. >> it's us.
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no, it's us. >> which of the two "squawk box" shows has dominance. >> it's the original. although our imitators are good. >> they are. just want to give you a quick market update. it is all about the u.s. this week. the tone for the most part has been negative this morning as you can judge from the red behind me. yes the uk pmi data came in weak, points to the country potentially in contraction territory despite the better gdp figures. some concern about greece. investors seem to be standing on the sidelines until a lot of these issues are resolved or at least there's more clarity. this follows reports over the weekend that some of the ways in which spanish banks borrow at cheap rates may not have been legal. the ecb says it's exploring the
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issue. one of the companies weighing on the foot city, hsbc which has said it is provisioning $1.5 billion against the laundering charges. group profit slightly disappointed investors. shares down 1.4% as a result the there. but that's really it in terms of the major corporate news. ubs going through a bit of a shake up. the bond wall expresses more of the mood we're seeing on the eve of the u.s. elections here. it's a rotation out of the periphery into the core. the gilts are benefiting. spain, italy seeing yields a little higher, but italy has been more of a barometer lately because it stayed below this 5% level. it's almost stuck there and that continues today. but inching closer. definitely something to keep an eye on. the bund oig is benefiting 1.44% there. just want to show you the euro-dollar. currency board, as well. as we start to talk about the
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outcome of the u.s. election, yes, investors are talking about a relief rally once there's some clarity. but as you know, clarity may not necessarily come right away when polls close tomorrow. one way to gauge what the market thinks is happening is to watch the dollar generally seen romney is better for the dollar. obama victory would mean a weaker dollar. so we see the dollar showing strength. whether that means markets are reading in to it or not, i don't necessarily want to think we can go that far, but we are seeing under 1.28 for the euro-dollar, 1.2796. shedding 0.1%. and this along with the other dallas crosses will be one to watch in the next about 48 hours and hopefully not too much longer than that. >> we are hoping we know in 48 hours exactly who the president is. cross our fingers on that. when we come back, as the northeast begins to recover from super storm sandy, the hardest hit regions are bracing for a possible nor'easter. this is the next phase.
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plus the final dash to election day. john harwood joins us with the latest poll findings. the new electoral map when "squawk box" returns.
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let's take a quick look at us equity futures. just 24 hours before the big
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election. dow off 22, nasdaq, as well. bowieing and kuwaiti leasing company finalizing an order for max 8s, valued at $2 billion current list prices. the deal first announced in july. >> and now to the forecast and the likely hood of a nor'easter actually hitting the new york area later this week. danielle banks jonan joining us. there are a lot of questions in terms of the winds and the shore areas. what can you you tell us at this point? >> absolutely. we understand of course the key concern. and normally a lot of folks if they heard nor'easter across, you know, these parts of the country this time of the year, they probably wouldn't blink twice about it. but given the circumstances of sandy, we understand the concerns. so here is the storm system we're looking at that will eventually move off to the eastoff the course of today heading in to tomorrow. this is going to mean wet
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weather across energy, south carolina, north florida for election day. and then that storm system starts to jog up the coastline. so here across the mid-atlantic and then extending in to the northeast, we'll see the rainfall working into spots like new york city and down towards philly, probably post-lunch time on wednesday. what we're going to find with this storm system which sticks around through much of thursday and finally starts to scoot away thursday night is that we're going to have some 50 plus-mile-an-hour wind gusts associated with this and we could see potential, this is still subject to range, 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts along the coastline and snow for the higher elevations. we'll be talking about the berkshires, the adirondacks, again, the highest elevation snow. the low elevation snowfall we leave will be limited. but we want folk to be aware of the rain and wind and coastal e
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erosion. again here is our case in point system which is very much on the move between today as well as tomorrow. right now not a whole lot happening across the northeast. it's going to be a sunny but cool day with p its till running about 10, 12 degrees below average. meanwhile in the west, it's a huge temperature divide while much of the east coast is seeing the cool temperatures. the west is very warm with 10 to 20 degree above average numbers. so as we go into wednesday night, we're still going to be talking about the rainfall and the gusty winds for locations closer to the coast. and then of course the snow showers, calling for more interior and high elevation spots. mountain snow extending down into west virginia. so we'll have to keep tabs as well on whether or not the smokies could see a little bit of light snowfall out of this. thursday night, the system looks to be on the move and get out of the way on friday. so those recovery efforts can resume. in terms of the current temperature its we have out there right now, generally
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speaking a lot of pockets in the upper 30s.its we have out there right now, generally speaking a lot of pockets in the upper 30s right now, generally speaking a lot of pockets in the upper 30s right now, generally speaking a lot of pockets in the upper 30s. mid-30s interior sections. but the cold air still staying in place which is a big deal considering we still have so many power outages. for those of you who are hoping to see a warm up, we will at least get some of the temperatures back into the 50s close forethis weekend, but we're about to see a huge shift with snowfall coming up mid week for the western half of the united states. right now of course our big concern is the nor'easter. >> the storm surge was the real issue, not only for people along the shore, but also for new york city. the storm surge that was associated with sandy. are we looking at anything like what we got that time around? >> no. because there is no tropical association with this system. we definitely want to be clear about that, no tropical association. and this is not going to be a sandy type circumstance. but again, we could see some 50 miles an hour wind gusts, we'll still have the cool air filtering in through the middle
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of this week. and with those winds, we could possibly lean towards more power outages. but guys remember, all the leaves have already been stripped off of many trees courtesy of sandy. however if there are danned trees because of sandy within your yard, we're encouraging you to let officials know so they can take a look at that. >> danielle, thank you. 50 miles an hour, having been everywhere around and seeing how many trees this big were down, we have big trees in our front yard and when i was watching in the middle of the hurricane with the 80-mile-an-hour gusts and watching them sort of go like this and wondering, i was still thinking, they're thick, they're fine. but having looked to see what did come down, if i had to go back and live through monday night again, i'd be much more worried. >> we slept downstairs and we'd do that again. >> we did have one come into our
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living room and crash through the roof and everything last year. >> you weren't there. >> we weren't there. but not this year. >> going to cut them all down? >> i won't cut them down, with you there are a lot of big trees inned wooded areas. and some of them snap halfway up. amazing things that you see. in sports news, ian poulter, i spoke to -- traded e-mails with him. shot 65-65 in china at the world golf championship beating guys like phil mickelson for ace first victory of the season. he's in a different level. he's on a different plane ever since the ryder cup. he overcame a four stroke deficit with a seven under par 65. mickelson, els, tied for second. and it wouldn't have been
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poulter if he didn't vet to get out of a long bunker shot, had about a ten foot put ats and it went right up to the edge of the hole. didn't stop, but just looked in and gently fell in with the perfect speed. amazing. now to football. sunday nature night nfl game, m important because it's nbc, atlanta falcons are 8-0 beating dallas 19-13. the matt ryan completed 24-34 passes and bryant kicked four field goals. atlanta is the only unbeaten team in the nfl. and another nfl game, we're talking about the panthers beat the redskins 21-13. there's a correlation between the outcome of the last washington, d.c. redskins football game prior to the presidential election and the drought come
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outcome of the election. miss torically when the redskins win, the incumbent wins. doesn't mean for sure, andrew. in 18 presidential contests, only once has this rule not held. that was in 2004 when president bush defeated john kerry despite a redskins loss. if history holds true, yesterday's redskins loss mean as victory for mitt romney and i pointed out the labor day indicator, we'll sea what happehappesee what happens with the markets today. joining us from new york is john harwood, who is probably saturday about that washington game for up a kell of reasons. but -- >> only one. >> those are the numbers. what else is -- speaking of football analogies, strained and tortured at this point, where with are we thousand wi
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are we now with the election? >> still one score, field goal, with about 40 seconds on the clock for mitt romney. we had a spade of polls over the weekend by nbc and the wall street journal, our national poll showed mitt romney trailing 48%-34 48%-47%. that's essentially a tie. but it reflects a move among several polls just to tick a little bit better for president obama over the last couple of days. and then the last three swing state polls in very important states show in florida, 49%-47%. president obama is leading. in virginia, 48-47. and in ohio, which is the critical one, romney trailing 51-45 to president obama. so what you've got is a situation where president obama has a consistent stable lead in swing states. it's not an overwhelming lead. and depending on what happens in turnout and how well the
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organizations function, the race could still go either way. democrats are feeling pretty confident and republicans are preparing for some disappointment which is why you heard some republicans over the weekend, haley barbour and sorries, saying that sandy is what broke the president -- or what broke mitt romney's momentum. >> yeah that's the only guy. what other republicans said something that indicated -- >> karl rove. >> what did rove say? >> rove said that he thought that the interruption in the campaign was a big blow to romney because romney had the wind at his back and anytime you divert attention or interest away from discussing the economic performance of the president, it helps the president. >> the sandy thing might not necessarily be going the right way at this point, though, either. >> well, we'll see. >> images of staten island and some of these other things might
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not -- they're starting to talk about maybe the whole relief effort wasn't handled as well as it should have been, john, right? i mean, i haven't seen -- gas line, et cetera. >> people could make that argument, but ed gillespie said all he could tell, the administration and fema and all of the people involved in the recovery effort had done a good job. so the romney campaign's at this point trying to exploit that and chris christie is a barrier against doing that because he's been fulsome in his praise for the president. if there is fallout or unhappiness, the fact that it's in new jersey, new york and connecticut is something that means it's not quite as important as it might otherwise be. >> john, how important is the issue of what's going on in florida in terms of the voting and ohio in terms of people waiting on these lines? is that crucial, critical, not important? >> i mean, it's hard to quantify
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the effect of it. certainly anytime you have the specter of things interfering with people's ability to vote, the countervailing force is the energy you get from the campaign that like the obama campaign which was upset about the decision in miami-dade county yesterday to stop handing out absentees. and immediately you had people protesting that decision, the obama campaign said it's not sustainable sustainable. so they'll try to leverage that. i'm not sure either one of those things, what's going on in ohio or in florida, is going to tip the result. but it certainly adds a little dash of excitement to the last 48 hours. >> john, when do they start counting the early ballots and do you think that we'll actually know come wednesday morning who won the election? >> i do. i expect that it's not going to be a multiple day event. i've been saying i thought we would know the winner by
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midnight. i'm not certain that that's the case. it may go a few hours in to wednesday morning. they tend to start countryiing early vote once polls close. all the early vote has been taken in, it doesn't get tabulated until the live voting on election day completes. and then it goes pretty rapidly because it's all stacked up and ready to go. >> but the early vote has been a much bigger con ten againtingen the past. >> it's growing every year. it's a quiet revolution. when we did our national survey over the weekend and asked people, 30% of the respondents in our poll, we had a very large sample, said that they had already voted. think about that. so so much of the election day has already occurred. some of that early voting still going on. it was generally assumed that we'd get the 35% or so having voted early and that number's only going up with every passing
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election. >> john, joe and i before the show were talking about nate silver and we were looking through some of the stuff he's put out there including that he believes the president will win by an -- chances are by 85% is what he says. do you understand how he gets there? >> yes. he has a statistical model that takes polls, aggregates them, averages polls and comes up with probabilities. >> but it's not just polls. it also includes historical information about the economy and other variables. >> but everything is written -- everybody writing over the weekend said if it was 99% and romney won, he'd still say, you know what, i didn't say it was 100%. so he says that. >> well, right. we're just dealing in probabilities. it's not like he has any magic krystal bacrystahrirystal ball. like entrade. it comes up with some number and people say obama has a 70% chance of winning.
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you can't quantify that. i talked to a member of congress last night, republican, conservative been serving for a long time, very experienced in presidential politics. he summed it up this way. he said we have the intensity on our side, the enthusiasm, we have the desire for change in the country on our side. they have a better electoral map, a better organization, they've gotten a little bit of a boost from sandy. and you look at -- you add it all up and the very close national poll, you have to give an edge to obama, but it's only a slight edge, either side could win on election day. >> you look at past elections, we didn't know. and it's really a hazing. i don't know. i don't know. >> depends on who turns out to vote. demographics of the country. >> the key thing will be a couple before one is the proportion of white voters as compared to nonwhites especially latinos. that's a big variable. they're overwhelming for obama, but they've shown afternoon lower interest level in the election than white voters.
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the other is the balance between young voters anded old voters. seniors are likely to turn it out. but the question is going to be what happens to those voters under 30. they strongly favor obama. are they going to be motivated to vote. and what you hear from the obama campaign is some may be unmotivated in the nonbattleground states, but we've been working on that in the battle ground states, so those numbers will hold. we'll find out. >> i don't know whether it's true, but i've heard an incumbent has never won with fewer electoral votes the first time around -- >> i think it's a fewer popular vote margin. >> you look at how many things just aren't aligned like they were in 2008 and we'll see what finally happens. i don't know how many things are actually better for the president than they were in 2008. i guess he did the immigration thing. >> plus you have four years of younger voters coming in. >> and political terms, nothing
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is really better for the president. >> immigration is. he's got 100% of hispanics. years ago, it was a toss up who they would vote for. >> no, he's got a big lead and he's doing better than al gore did against george w. bush with hispanics. but it's not 100%. >> well, i was rounding up. >> yeah, rounding up from two-thirds. >> what is it with white suburban voters? probably woultwo-thirds there. >> no, among white voters overall, romney's been running about 60%. and he probably needs to do a tick better than that to win the election, but he's disproportionately strong in small town and rural areas. >> so what yard line are they on
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and who who is the quarterback with 40 seconds to go arrest does a field goal tie it or win it? >> no, he can win it with a field goal. >> how much time is left and what yard line and who is the quarterback? >> well, i said 40 seconds. clock is running. no more time-outs. i would say that romney is about on on his 28 yard line. >> 28. one pass. >> who is throwing? >> you have to complete a couple of pretty good balls. >> who is the quarterback? >> the quarterback for romney? well, let's see. >> mark sanchez? >> someone who can connect or not? >> you keep your mark sanchez. i'm taking peyton or somebody. i don't know. maybe i'll take that guy that looks like a truck from pittsburgh. roethlisberger. god, he's good. he just is mean. >> did you see when the defensive tackles meet him in the pocket, it's like two bear wrestling match.
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>> the yellow flags in giants stadium, it was half and half. i swear. as close as this election. anyway, thanks, john. notre dame pulling a horseshoe right out of their mouth. and a programming note, election day will mean a special "squawk box." yes, we will be on air -- i don't see how people can do this humanly. we'll be on on from 6:00 to 9:00 tomorrow morning and it says here supposedly we'll be back on the air between 5:00 and 7:00. people can't do five hours of live tv. >> election day they do a lot more than that. not to mention on wednesday morning, we start at 5:00 a.m. >> our colleague will then pick up the -- no, we're glad to be back. it will be great. >> coming up on squawk, the road to recovery from have spr storm sandy. the cnbc team brings you the latest stats including power outage, gas line, transit closures and much more. plus we'll head to the trading
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pits. rough end to the week for stocks and futures pointing to a negative start this morning. what you need to know before heading to the office. if we want to improve our schools... ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build a strong foundation. let's invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. customer erin swenson bought from us online today.
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i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy. (together) happy. i love logistics. welcome back. we're talking about the road to recovery from super storm sandy. there are still millions without power and many more struggling to find gasoline. jackie deangelis joins us with the latest facts and figures. >> well, clean up efforts continuing this weekend in the wake of sandy. thousands of would-be marathon runners spent the day volunteering in the hardest hit parts. the new york road runners have
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also donated $1 million to hurricane relief. meantime new york subway system is mostly up and running this morning. time for the rush hour commute. with limited capacity and some rerouted train paths, the mta says that over 08% of service is now restored, but governor cuomo warning not to expect normal service just yet. and in a brooklyn warehouse, hundreds of generators are waiting to be shipped to voting locations in new york. nearly 60 of the city's polling locations had to be moved or closed. and in nuin new jersey, the sta department will permit voters to vote electronically by e-mail or pa fax. >> this morning we're asking what could be done differently to make sure everything from gasoline shortages to power disruptions don't happen again. among our guests is john
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we have another big week coming up. one day away from the election and within day of lifting one level of uncertainty off the minds ofinvestors. >> you just hit the nail on the head. it's just uncertainty. honestly, whoever wins as long as it's not extended out like we
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saw back in 2004, as lon as wednesday morning we have a win market's going up. that's the decided opinion of the traders on the floor, of people in the investment world that i've spoken with. it's just a matter of uncertainty right now. friday's sell-off was in response to the big run-up on thursday, people positioning themselves, flattening out. again, beyond tuesday, as long as we have some sort of reconciliation with this whole thing, market's going up. >> are you saying that based on the assumption you think there will be a solution for the fiscal cliff no matter who wins? >> not at all. what i'm saying is this november 6th election behind us. then we can worry about the next thing. the fiscal cliff i don't think it will start kicking in to traders minds until post thanked giving. the next two, three weeks you'll see rally mode and as we get closer, as we get closer, then
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it will start kicking in. you never know what's going to happen with china, europe or anything internationally as well but the fiscal cliff is honestly down here on the trading floor not on the top of the list of traders' minds. >> you're talking about a trading perspective but not necessarily investing for somebody putting money into a 401(k) or something? >> 100%, that is correct. i'm giving you the view from down in the trading pits and what people are saying on the floor and also i would tell you the complacency of traders and what is the mind-set right now that once we get past tomorrow, it's market up for the next two, three weeks. >> okay, scott, thank you very much. good talking to you. >> wow. >> thanks. coming up on "squawk box" a man who needs no introduction, legendary icon irk corps leader jack welch, takes on everything from the election to the economy to the recovery from sandy. stay tuned.
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take a look at the futures boards this morning, with he are indicated for a lower open. dow futures down by about 33 points, the s&p futures off over 4 points, nasdaq futures down as well. in the next hour a live report from the fuel chokehold causing gas lines of panic in the new york area and our guest host jack welch on issues that matter most to the economy and later
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evercorps partner and founder roger altman and 7:40, romney adviser senator rob portman. stay tuned. "squawk" will be right back. with low testosterone. aren androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and... is concentrated, so you could use less gel. and with androgel 1.62%, you can save on your monthly prescription. [ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or, signs in a woman which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are, or may become pregnant or are breast feeding
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the winning strategy straight from the gut. it's the final stretch for the presidential campaign. today's guest host jack welch tells us the challenges that lie ahead for the economy and business across america. plus ohio senator rob portman joins us from the buckeye state with his blueprint for a romney victory. markets in focus. evercorps partners founder roger altman on what investors are betting on before the first trade and the latest on sandy's cost of recovery as the second
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hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. take a look at future this is morning. we have some red arrows after a tough week last week, dow looks like it would be off about 25 points, s&p 500 and nasdaq would be off as well. let's get you through some of your morning headlines. ralph lauren, chairman and ceo of ralph lauren announcing a $2 million gift of hurricane relief efforts. as part of the gift the ralph and ricky lauren family foundation is donating $1 million to the mayor's fund to advance new york city to help address immediate needs of new yorkers as well as long-term relief efforts and the polo ralph lauren foundation is donating the other $1 million to relief efforts dividing the money between the robinhood
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relief fund and the american cross and local organizations for relief in new jersey, connecticut, new york and long island. >> lauren. >> a little lauren/lauren. >> because you were practicing before and you got two of them right and then -- >> hard to break old habits. >> thank you. also this morning, time warner cable reporting financial results for its third quarter, the nation's second largest cable operator earning $2.60 a share. residential services revenue increased 7% to $4.5 billion and finally the average price for gasoline, of a gallon falling sharply. the lundberg survey showing prices averaged $3.55 over the last two weeks, down 20 cents from the last survey and the biggest two-week drop since december of 2008.
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around here i've been to some stations where they're charging a lot more than that. >> gas prices across the country may have been dropping but that is little relief for the people in areas hard hit by hurricane sandy because they can't get gas at all in some cases. in other situations they've been waiting for hours. kate kelly joins us with more on the refueling efforts. part of the problem with the lower prices coming through a reflection of the fact people have stopped driving as much in this area. looks like we're having a problem with kate's audio. you look at what happened with oil prices and gasoline prices they've come down but in our family we haven't driven anywhere except for absolute emergency places to get to school and work and that's about it. >> our guest host is jack welch, founder of the jack welch manageme management institute at streyer university. we have one day left. we had a gentleman from the
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floor say once we get to certainty either way the market's going to go up. is that in your view if we remove some of the election uncertainty, does it make things automatically better no matter who wins? >> no, i don't think it's automatically who wins. if you get one winner you'll get a surge. if you get the other winner, the current president, you'll have more of the same. >> i could make the case that you're talking about a win by president obama causes the market to surge because it means bernanke stays t means qep, qe perpetual stays, the punch bowl continues to be full t means the government continues to spend t means no austerity. this point is being made by the krugmans of the world and by multiple -- just say the name and i laugh, too, i know. i laugh, too, but that point is being made by a lot of people that the austerity that we saw play out in europe that is actually some people say it's not what they did for the last
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ten years, it's what they did for the last year that's hurt europe. that case is made. >> i understand. >> the same case could be made here. you didn't name who you were talking about. who were you talking about? >> we have two fundamental issues in the u.s. one everyone talks about over and over again called the fiscal cliff and how we match revenues with expenses, and the second one is the regulatory wall, and the regulatory wall is a huge deal. it's equal in my opinion to what happens in my marketplace as the fiscal cliff. >> okay, you're combining the fiscal abyss and the fiscal cliff. you're not just talking about the thing that's going to hit on -- you're talking about entitleme entitlements, that's a combo fiscal cliff, we call it the fiscal abyss. the one we could kick down the road but a fiscal abyss is looming. >> and the regulatory wall is
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obviously right in front of you. and you need two things to deal with these. you need someone to deal with the fiscal cliff who can cross party lines. we don't know for sure mitt romney can do it but we know for sure the current president can't. that's been proven. as far as the regulatory wall is concerned, we have a chance in this country to make this the american century. i mean, this gas thing is huge. the gas and oil that we have found is in the first inning. it's like the internet in 1990. we're in the first inning of a great american century, unless we get whacked. now, if you go to new york state, you get a small example of what can happen with the marcellus fields. pennsylvania is drilling. west virginia is drilling. new york state is having another study, another study.
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if we get shut down on this thing that will change the shape of the chemical industry, all the products that are derived from the chemical industry and give us low energy cost that makes us the most competitive country in the world, jobs, jobs, jobs. >> exporting. >> you say new york state is running surveys or doing all of these tests. >> this is the fourth one now. >> why would the president change that? meaning so much of this is state-based. >> in order to go on federal lands, you're going to have to -- >> on federal lands absolutely. >> that's where we have to go. if we're going to make this the american century, we have to have a moonshot type thing to get energy out of the ground and we can't have lisa jackson deciding what our energy policy's going to be. we just can't do it. you can't -- you've got to put somebody in charge of this that understands we need regulation, we need smart regulation, but
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names like hilda solis, lisa jackson, these are the people that are going to determine the job creation in this country under this president. i think under another president, president romney, we will get a more positive job creation. if i were working in a factory, even in a union factory, i would want to have somebody who is going to break through this regulatory wall and attack this fiscal cliff because my future and my kids' future are better off from the factory floor to the executive office. those two issues can be best handled by a conciliatory, a uniter, not a divider, in the first one, and a complete understanding of business and regulation, proper regulation to get us energy, an energy-rich america. you can't believe, it will be bigger than the internet was, and we're only in the first inning. it's such an important thing. i mean, it's amazing to me that
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it doesn't just jump off the front page of everyone, not yours but other papers. >> the lifeblood of commerce, cheap energy. >> is the oxygen that makes people -- an economy breathe. the blood that makes it run. >> you look at digital and what that did for all of our commerce, you look at the internet and what this cheap computers, cheap chips. it's not murphy's law, the good law. >> moore's law. >> not murphy's law. you look at what that did for productivity. it could be that only exponential with energy. >> and if you see the innovation that's going on -- i went to the marcellus group meeting a month ago, and i saw on the floor all these inventors in there with better gadgets and better things but what did i also see there? people throwing eggs in the street at the marcellus people. it reminded me of my nuclear days when it's the same crowd with a different suit on.
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they took off the nuclear suit because of what happened in japan, and they put on a new suit. now how they ever came up with that name fracking somebody should be arrested, calling it fracking, it sounds bad. it is so important to this country. >> i'm not going to disagree with you on a lot of the things you just said. we haven't talked to him since bls. last week and before. >> i just saw the assumptions for the seasonal adjustments were totally changed. >> i would love to. if we have a minute, but i need a couple of minutes to talk. >> i think we have a couple of minutes. >> okay, i came out with, that's a 7.8 came out in september we had gone from 8.3 to 7.8 in two months. that means we had a booming economy. there is nothing in my view of looking at all my businesses, or looking at the general economy that said that was true. then i looked below the surface,
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we had the lowest participation rate in 30 years. we had more people added since ronald reagan added them in june of '83, and we had more government workers than we ever had in 20 years so something's whacky here. i didn't think it was right. let's look what happened in the unemployment -- >> on friday. >> 8.1 to 7.8 and let's think friday. we added 110,000 jobs in september, before the adjustment, recent adjustment. we had 110,000 employees, and what happened to the unemployment? it went down from 8.1 to 7.8. this month we had one point, 171,000 jobs and we go up. so we had 70,000 more jobs and we go up. why? because this thing is filled with assumptions. you go out and you get 2,000
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employees in the census department, not in bls. it's farmed out to the commerce department. now when solis came on and said all my employees loyal, they weren't her employees, so i'm not sure she knew that but that was the census. now you look at the results for september and you look at them for october. is jack wrong? 171,000 jobs. 62% of american corporations, s&p, missed their revenue forecast. challenger this month has had more layoff announcements than they've had. the gdp is going up 2% in the third quarter. if you take out defense, we'd have 1.4. every fact says we don't have a booming economy. the insurance -- >> are we going to chalk all this up to some weird statistical anomaly or are we
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chalking this up to political manipulati manipulation. that's the larger question you ultimately raised. >> i did and thank god i did, and i went on four tv stations, and you should have heard the angers there. how can you challenge bls number. these numbers are brought in with white gloves with guns beside them. >> you know who these people are. >> but it was the silliest thing. >> you know who these people are. >> the plus or minus in the household number, andrew, is 400,000. the range of error in a month. >> you said yourself in the "wall street journal" piece you laid out that you wish you would have put a question mark on the end about the political advantages on it. this number doesn't make sense, it didn't make sense to a lot of people when it hit the street. >> maybe it wouldn't have gotten as much action if i put a question mark there and the action i had got people to
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realize -- 2,000 people in three phone banks around the company making a call and they say, are you working? yep. okay. how many hours are you working? one. i'm working one hour. i'm mowing lawns down the street for an hour. >> it's just obvious to me that anybody that knows what you were able to do at ge with your numbers, if anybody knows about how to manipulate these numbers, i mean he would know whether someone was manipulating, you would know about cooking books. have you seen those -- >> i've seen that, i've seen all kinds of things. >> you were two cents above every quarter for 30 quarters. >> let me tell you something -- no, it was 40. >> you know what you've always told me, you didn't manage the numbers, you managed the business. >> let me tell you something else. when they say you beat analyst estimates, we weren't always up double digits. >> right. >> if i'm telling you a number, 30 days before giving guidance
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and i miss it, i'm going to put a gun to my head. i am a dope. why would you miss an estimate if you have 40 businesses all coming in with different -- >> and people telling them what it's supposed to be. >> ge should know you know how to do it and you know when someone else is doing it, damn it. >> that was the nicest thing they said to me. that was paul krugman. >> everybody laughed, all you have to do is say the name and laugh because it is a joke. >> did i -- >> you did, you can talk more about it. >> you can come back with me. this so important. nobody knew. >> it's interesting to me your own question mark, whether there should have been a question mark at the end and whether this friday changed your view at all about it. >> it confirmed my view this friday. >> you used to own this network you know we have to go bhmake se
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money. follow us on twitter,@squawkcnbc is the handle. coming up, roger altman will join us as we head to the finish line on this campaign. take a look at futures this morning, "squawk box" is coming back right after this.
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we're back. we are one day away from deciding who will be the next president of the united states. joining us from new york is roger altman, evercorps chairman and founder. our guest host is jack welch. >> hi, andrew. >> roger, give us your version of nate silver, one of these polling. what do you think is really going to happen here? >> well if the data is right, meeting all of the polls and analyses then the president is going to win. if you look on real clear politics, which is the bible for the press, you see that there are nine toss-up states in their scenario, the president is ahead in seven of them and absent the toss-up states he's already
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ahead going into those nine. end trades 64%, we all see the same things. so if that, if those analyses and that data, andrew, are right, then the president's going to win. >> roger, let me make it more interesting. we had scott bauer on in the 6:00 hour. he said that no matter who wins, the markets rally just on the idea of certainty, however, literally within the past 15 minutes we had jack say if romney wins, we get an out market i think with obama i don't know if you're saying we get a down market, we're not rallying? >> more of the same, steady. >> what is your take? >> in my experience there are very few election results which surprise markets and so i would be surprised if the markets were surprised so my two cents is if the state is correct and if obama ekes out a narrow victory,
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the markets will take it in stride, there will be little effect. i'm not a market expert so i'll defer to others. >> what happens if we don't get an outcome wednesday morning? >> well that would be bad for markets, pi we all know don't like uncertainty. i saw an analysis of the market behavior during the 2000 recount and the market declined pretty sharply during that period so a prolonged no decision i think would be adverse for markets, whether it's, if it's 24 hours that probably doesn't make much difference. in 2004 the result took until the next morning. i don't believe that john kerry conceded until 11:00 or 12:00 the next day. that wouldn't be much but a prolonged 2000 like scenario would be pretty negative. >> roger one last question -- go ahead, sorry, becky. roger, jack had talked earlier about jobs and really just the
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energy business and regulation. i know you're an obama supporter. do you believe there will be less job creation under obama? >> no, and i want to make one comment on what jack said because i heard that. i agree entirely with jack with one exception. that type of i would say revolutionary turn-around in u.s. oil and gas production is already happening, and if you look at the forecasts from people like dan yergen or citigroup or many, many others, we are on track right now to, a, have the highest natural gas output in our history which actually we already have this minute, and b, surpass saudi arabia as the largest oil producer in the world by 2020. we're going to have a 1 million barrel per day increase in production next year, that will be the biggest increase in a single year since 1951. oil production in this country
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is soaring, which is a wonderful thing, because it obviously helps our economy, reduces our current account deficit, spurs jobs and so forth. my point to jack is, he's right except that it's already on track to happen. >> but roger, if mike bloomberg says no, we gotta go with president obama because of climate change, he's endorsing someone because this is someone who is not going to favor fossil fuels and hydrocarbons, who is going to at least try to put constraints on it or not endorse it to the extent that you would think we need to develop it fully. >> i don't agree, joe. you know, the debates, the presidential debates we just saw featured a big disagreement between the two candidates on the role of federal lands. >> right. >> and oil production and jack talked about that a few minutes ago. based on current policies on federal lands right today as is where is, oil production is soaring, gas production is
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soaring. the center of gravity of oil in the world is moving back toward the western hemisphere which by 2020 will be internally self-sufficient, in other words total production in the western hemisphere will equal consumption, a tremendous revolution is going on now, whether or not -- >> in spite of the obama administration or because of it. have you talk about what it's like to work with the administration to do these things? do you listen to what they say? are they all fwrogrousing becau they're partisan? you're in a keystone z that look like someone that was fully backing hydrocarbon development. >> joe, i'm sure they'd like it to be easier and if i was in their shoes i'd like it to be easier. the data doesn't lie. >> you know when we've got this much that the market is going to go where money can be made and you're not going to be able to stop it despite your best
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efforts of the central government. >> i'm saying that the idea that the current administration is impeding oil and gas production is belied by the facts. the performance over the past four years, and i don't think this is president obama's doing, this is the market's, the performance over the last four years in the natural gas market and meeting production and the oil market meeting production has been absolutely breathtaking. it's an incredible thing for the the united states, a tribute to u.s. technology because all of this horizontal drilling, advanced seismic is made in america technology but it's happening right now. >> roger, we'll leave there. we appreciate you being on with us this morning. we'll see what the electorate has to say in the next 48 hours. becky has a surprise guest. >> we have jack welch with us as our guest host and when jack welch is on set interesting things happen.
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we got a phone call with warren buffett. good morning to you. >> hi, becky. i've got an important question for jack, enough of this beating around the bush with these minutia questions. jack, our shoe companies, sales have been a little slow and you know, i remember very well that you were a star salesperson for thom mcann. many people feel their career peaked in selling shoes. you've got ideas about how to sell purple shoes. >> just up the commission, increase the commission on the people. >> tell me how you really did it when the women came in and you were getting a nickel for black shoes and 25 cents for purple shoes. >> i was able to have more drive and incentive and incentives drive all kinds of behavior, warren, as you know well. >> tell me what you told those women.
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>> i don't recall. >> well, i think you told me that when they were in purple shoes, men would look at them from miles away, but if they kept wearing the black shoes they were going to have real trouble. >> i didn't remember that, but that could have been true. >> you were well-known for that at thom mcann and it was the beginning of a fantastic career, jack. >> i love you, warren. >> okay, good to talk to you. >> thanks, warren, for calling in. we appreciate it. >> okay. jack's on tv and people call in. he called in at the last minute because he saw you and had seen what you were talking about. >> i'm going to get you some purple shoes. coming up more on tomorrow's election and what it means for your money. becky is wearing purple. >> i have black shoes on today. senator rob portman will join us and at the top of the hour kneel kashkari will explain
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friday's sellout and tell us what's working now and at 8:10 we have the director of motor fuels for the national association of convenience stores john eichberger on rationing and hoarding and when things may get back to normal. major medical, boyyy, yeah! [ beatboxing ] berr, der berrp... ♪ i help pay the doctor ♪ ain't that enough for you? ♪ there's things major medical doesn't do. aflac! pays cash so we don't have to fret. [ together ] ♪ something families should get ♪ ♪ like a safety net ♪ help with food, gas and rent, so cover your back, with... ♪ a-a-a-a-a-a-a-aflac! [ male announcer ] help protect your family at aflac.com. [ beatboxing ] oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning, making headlines the american airlines pilot union is close to finalizing contract language for a labor deal with the airline, a negotiating committee expects to present a final product to the union board later this week. samsung has sold more than 30 million gallon uxy phones, and "wreck it ralph" won the weekend box office with the highest grossing opening weekend in disney animation history, $49.1 million in ticket sales, box office attendants picked up in the aftermath of superstorm sandy. i saw "flight" with denzel washington.
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>> you like it in. >> i thought it was great. he is an alcoholic who is a pilot, great story, you don't want to ruin it. >> bad combo. right? >> it's really well done. >> he does an amazing landing -- >> when he's -- >> yes, he saves, anyway i don't want to give away. >> are we finding out sully was -- >> that's what i wondered when i saw the promos, it was bizarre. >> let's get back to hurricane sandy, will be one for the record books when it comes to insurance claims making it one of the most expensive storms in history but how much of those losses are actually covered by insurance? cnbc's mary thompson joins us at the desk with a look at the claims after the storm. mary? >> insurer are still in the discovery phase. last week the ceo of allstate saying it may be mid-november before it knows sandy's cost to the firm. early estimates put sandy among the costliest of tragedies. at the high end it makes it the
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fourth most costliest behind katrina, 9/11 and hurricane andrew. with the final tally still months away the total costs impacted in how soon the power and transportation grids are back to normal. the sooner they are the lower the final price. as for the firms covering the claims, earnings will take a hit but analysts say the industry is well reserved to cover sandy with over $500 billion in capital the industry has funds to pay, its premium increases over the last year and decline in catastrophe claims helped to bulk up their financial profile. the storm's impact a negative hit to fourth quarter results so after it may help lift profits by getting insurers cover to raise premiums. morgan stanley is expecting to see sandy cut earnings by 26%. deutsche bank expects chub, travelers and allstate to see sandy cut shareholders equity by 2%. aig says it's auto eartoo early
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say. travelers and chub making no comment on potential losses for now but like all the others, they have adjusters fanned out across the northeast to reach clients. state farm says as of saturday it received more than 63,000 how many owners claims and 12,000 auto claims. much of the damage is flooding, not covered by insurers but it is covered by a national flood insurance program and that's likely to put a strain on that program already on the line to the treasury i think by about $18 billion. >> mary, thank you very much. we appreciate it. up next more from our guest host, jack welch and senator rob portman on the threat of falling off the fiscal cliff. "squawk box" will be back after this quick break. [ female announcer ] introducing u
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our guest host today is jack welch, founder of the jack welch management institute at streyer university. we've been talking about regulations, what it means in some cases. roger altman was on earlier saying that the situation is already changing with enit comes to oil and gas in this country. do you agree with that?
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>> clearly he's right in a partial way. if you go to the digi coders and you see what's happening in this fields up there it's incredible. we have a steel company that builds buildings and they can't get the buildings up there fast enough. chemical distribution business has set up a big place in minot, the dakotas and it's delivering incredible growth. it is on private lands doing very well. the argument comes down to how big, how fast, and you know, the president and his team, i include them, because he's got steven chu, who is on record as saying he hates fossil fuels. >> right. >> he has lisa jackson who has never seen an emission that she doesn't want to absolutely go to zero and it's a problem. so when you look at ozone, they postpone ozone to january of
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2013. ozone is a trillion-dollar bill to the u.s. economy. if they put the ozone restrictions in they want to, take them down there, it's a trillion-dollar billion. co2 isn't done yet. >> there was a hesitancy to build out hydrocarbon infrastructure. that is not the energy -- it was renewable, it was solar, it was wind. i guess maybe nuclear. >> and wind and solar may be just right for us 30 years down the road or 40 years down the road but we have a 100-year plus -- >> of $2 per thousand cubic feet. >> we have stuff that will change our whole economy. look at the jobs up there. in the dakotas you'll have jobs in infrastructure, you'll have jobs at ports, even though we'll be shipping stuff. >> i know, i know, i know, you've turned my opinion on that. >> what did you think of mayor bloomberg's endorsement of obama
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on the grounds of climate change and how does the climate debate change, if it does at all given the sandy storm. >> that's, i -- you know, there are so many articles out there refuting that this is the worst. >> embarrassing. >> i'm not a climatologist, but the stuff i read says this has not been an unusual year or unusual decade. just the opposite. that's what scares me because it gives those people throwing eggs in philadelphia an argument. it's a serious argument. i lived through the nuclear business and they would show up at every meeting and never stop. these folks took the nuclear uniforms off and they've got the fracking uniforms on now and fracking is a word that gives them new energy to go after. >> where are the federal lands that we should be opening up that we're not at this point? >> alaska, and all kinds of
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things in texas and oklahoma. it's just -- what i'd like to have us think about, becky is that this is the american century and energy is the lifeblood of an economy. it changes our relationships with our enemyies. when you start opening up on federal lands, leases and taxes come up. you take care of the fiscal cliff in many ways. all kinds of good things. you can support a military from the revenues you get from that, all kinds of great things will happen. america -- if saudi arabia had the intellectual capital and infrastructure we had in the '80s and '90s they could have taken over the world, but they didn't have it. we have it all there, right now, business after business and when they get low energy costs and an ability to export, what will
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happen in this economy will be education money will be available, all kinds of monies available. this is the beginning of a revolution, and he says it's moving along. roger t is moving but nowhere near the pace it should be. >> jack, if you're standing in front of some pillars and you make a campaign promise to heal the planet and to stop the oceans from rising, it's hard to build out hydrocarbon. it's hard to build out hydrocarbon infrastructure, so you're just keeping a campaign promise. i only have one more day, i only have one more day and the election will be over, we'll get back to stocks. until then i cannot help myself. anyway we'll have more -- >> transform is the word. we don't want to transform america. we want to make america more competitive, better, et cetera. transform, why do we want to change it all? we want to fix it so it gets better and stronger for more people. >> the whole -- there have been, one of the reasons not to build
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out keystone, did you hear the comment? we've built pipelines that span, go around the -- did you hear that comment we already have enough pipelines, what does that mean, we've built a lot of pipelines that have gone around the world, so many pipelines. anyway, coming up, the election and the economy, senator rob portman is our special guest next and still, still to come on "squawk" this morning, pimco's neel kashkari, find out what investment ideas are working for him now and what he expects after the election and then john eichberger joins us to discuss when the gas will flow again and why gas stations don't have backup generators. "squawk box" will be back in two minutes. so, what hap
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welcome back, everybody. with the presidential race in a dead heat both presidential candidates are busy on the campaign trail. senator rob portman joins us from the battleground state of ohio. senator, good morning. ohio seems to be front and center for everything this time around. people are saying it comes down to ohio, it comes down to one county there. what can you tell us, based on what you know, what you see in the polls? >> i can tell you that the polls are in a dead heat as you say but i'm traveling the state, becky, i've been east, west, north and south the last few
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days at rallies and victory centers and we have the energy and enthusiasm, a lot more than 2008, we've made more phone calls and done more door knocking. we've knocked on 20 times more doors than all of 2008. i think the momentum is on our side and at the end of the day mitt romney is going to win ohio, so goes ohio probably so goes the country as you say. >> do you know anything about early voting. at this point we know who has voted, who is a traditional democrat, who has voted who is a traditional republican. 47% aren't classified in anything, they're classified as independents. what do you know about the early vote? >> what we do know about early voting, compared to 2008, more republicans have shown up to early vote and fewer democrats have shown up to early vote, though the net difference is about 200,000 or so votes so that's good for us and the sense compared to 2008 we're doing better but republicans tend to like to vote on election day so we won't know until tuesday and look, it's going to be close,
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but i do think that the momentum is on our side and it's because of the economic issues ultimately drive the election in ohio, independent and undecided voters are frustrated with the status quo, not happy with the economy and i think that will show up in their votes tuesday. >> rob -- senator, there is an intrade number and i don't know w what to think of in-trade, a small amount of money can influence it but if it's a small amount of money, both sides would be fighting each other to try to influence it, that's at about 68, 67, something like that for obama. then you got the nate silver numbers that are like at -- 66 now, that are like i don't know, he said 80% or so and you know what? both the in-trade and the silver numbers, they both are kind of based on ohio and what has or hasn't changed and the perception is, and i don't know whether it's accurate or not is that there's still an advantage for barack obama in ohio whether it's his ground game, whether
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it's the unemployment rate has come down more quickly because of auto jobs. do you know in real polling whether romney is still behind there in ohio? do you have anything that these guys apparently have that they're putting into their models? >> one they're looking at public shows that show barack obama slightly ahead, most within the margin of error, including cnn today. they assume in those polls a bigger number of democrat also show up to the polls than most people think is likely because they are tending to use the sample from 2008, where yeah, democrats were up about plus eight in terms of turnout. in 2004, republicans were up about plus four. i think this year somewhere in between. if you look at the public polls and their methodology and sampling, they're oversampling democrating as compared to what everyone thinks is going to happen. we have the energy on our side this year which is different. second is it's just awful close. so even if you assume that more
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democrats are going to show up than republicans, at those kind of numbers, still these polls are within the margin of error. the rcp average is within the margin of error, which is their politics analysis. joe i think it will come down to the ground game. you're a guy. we're a purple state. we're not red and blue. >> i told my co-anchors it's not just ohio, it's not just cincinnati, it's not just hamilton county, it's my street, it's where i grew up will actually pick. i can't believe it. >> where you and gail collins. >> gail collins right up the street, she's on sydney actually. henninger said huckabee had 350,000 evangelicals in ohio, they are energized by ryan or -- he said there's 350,000 that didn't vote in 2008, some secret voting block. do you boo i that? >> i was with governor huckabee
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on his show the night before last and we were talking about this and i'm out and about talking to people and i would tell you folks are fired up this year. we've never seen rallies like this before. you know in westchester, just north of where you grew up, 30,000 people showed up on two days' notice and they were pumped you. it's a different situation on the ground than it was in 2008. i think 2004, closer to 2000 where the people on the republican side and independent voters and some conservative democrats are just saying we can't have another four years like the last four years and they're fired up about that. mitt romney is finishing strong, too, because he's finishing with a positive note so if you look at the speeches he's giving and you look at the tv ads that are up, you know, they're all inspiring ads saying we can do better as a country and i think that at the end of the day is where undecided voters are looking for hope. the president's closing in a more negative way. he's on the attack and i don't think that's going to be helpful to those voters who haven't made their mind up yet so it could be
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a very close election. it will be a nail-biter but i believe at the end of the day we've got the momentum, we've got the energy, we've got the issues, which is the economy and jobs on our side. i think we're going to win this thing. >> that was what i was going to ask him, what is he going to bet on this deal on ohio? hello, governor. >> jack, how are you? >> good, how are you? >> jack, thank you for being on. i was listening to you earlier and one thing that jack is talking about i think is absolutely true is that if mitt romney wins, i do believe you're going to see a lot of cash going off the sidelines, investors, small business people who are now afraid start to take that risk, start to make that investment and i think these policies that mitt romney is talking about are the right thing for the country, no question about it. there's also an attitude here, with i is we're going to work together to solve problems, we're going to reach across the aisle, find common ground, we're going to say job creators are people we want to hold up, not criticize. all of that is helpful to
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provide more certainty and i think more energy and enthusiasm around the economy gist as we've seen with the election with our voters, that will make a big difference to get us back on track. we can't deal with the incredible deficit and debt without growing this economy. i feel, jack, you're right, you're optimistic about the future, if we can make a change in leadership and a change not just in leadership and policies but approach to say we're going to hold job creators up and find solutions to these problems. >> senator, thank you very much for joining us today. we appreciate your time. >> becky, thank you. try to keep joe under control these next 24 hours. >> thanks for all you're doing. >> maybe just a grudge match between gail collins, we should have an ultimate fighting, put us in a ring, me and gail collins. you know what? don't do that. i think she could take me. that's not a good idea. up next we have more business talk from jack welch and come up at the top of the next hour, neel kashkari. take a look at last week's
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winners and losers.
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still to come we have an update on recovery and rebuilding efforts after hurricane sandy. gas is still an issue in many places. people lining up with their cars. we'll speak to the director of motor fuels for the national
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association of convenience stores. that association sells three-quarters of all gas across this country. they can tell us a little bit about wlaes' happening and what can be done to make sure this doesn't happen again. neel kashkari of pimco will talk about what's working now, we'll get his thoughts on the election, the markets and much more.
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your money, your vote. we're counting down to tomorrow's election with a guest host who is never shy about speaking his mind. >> i think under another president, president romney, we will get a more positive job creation. >> one more hour with the master of management jack welch. we will bring you investment ideas from a "squawk box" market mast master, pimco's neel kashkari on the economy, the election and global picks for your portfolio. the road to recovery from hurricane sandy. new york and new jersey residents facing power outages and gas lines. how long will it take to restore fuel supply lines? the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> welcome back to "squawk box"
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first on cnbc in business worldwide. our guest host is jack welch, founder of the jack welch management institute at streyer university, the author of "winning" the author of "straight from the gut." how long were you at general electric? >> 40 years. >> 40 but how long as ceo? >> 21. >> 21 years, split adjusted dollar a share when you started. >> $5,000. >> right. it was $1 was what the shares were and you left there was about $60. >> but if you had $100 got you 5,000. >> revenue went from what 8 billion -- >> no, from 12 billion to 125 billion. >> 125 billion. >> and profits went from 1.5 to 15. >> wow. right, see, i just can't introduce you, i like the jack welch management institute, god bless you but i think we ought to mention --
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>> that's what we got to get more and more companies to do and the jack welch management institute is the place where we teach you how to do it. >> if you were born in 1988, people don't even know who you are. that's why i said who you were. much more to come from jack still this morning but first, andrew has your morning headlines. we are in the home stretch of the presidential election. several polls have the candidates neck and neck, take a look, the latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll has the race 48-47 nationally, that's barely favoring the president. reuters reports similar margins in florida, virginia, colorado and ohio. governor romney will be spending the day campaigning in florida and virginia, finishing with a final rally in manchester, new hampshire, and then president obama will be campaigning in wisconsin, ohio and iowa. we also have an update on sandy. millions in new york and new jersey are still without power as a result of superstorm sandy. this is creating problems at the gas pump as residents struggle to keep cars and generators
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fueled. for the first time in 30 years a gas rationing system is in effect now throughout 12 new jersey counties. we'll get an update on the fuel supply problems in a few minutes from john eichberger, director of motor fuels at the national association of convenience stores. let's get a quick check on the markets, ahead, 24 hours away from the elections here dow jones looks like it would open 34 points lower, s&p 500 off a little over four points and the nasdaq would be off about ten points. let's take a trip overseas to see what's going on in asia, a little bit down marginally except for korea. let's go over to europe, see how things are faring, red arrow across the board. almost down a percent in the cac in france. stifel financial is buying kbw, the deal is valued in ex-et of $575 million which includes the outstanding shares and
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restricted stock awards of kbw. stifel chairman and ceo ron krzyzewski will join us tomorrow which begins at 5:00 p.m. eastern, on the morning, later in the afternoon and back again the next morning at 5:00 a.m. >> we are just one day away from that presidential election, as you know. joining us to talk about the markets and the economy before the polls open is "squawk" market master neel kashkari, head of global equities at pimco and former official at the treasury depp. neel we've been having a debate about whether or not the election clears up an uncertainty for us. it obviously does that but the "wall street journal" and some of the traders we've spoken with say no matter what happens in the election it's good news for the stock markets. are you of that same opinion? >> i think the markets want to see an end to this uncertainty that we're living sound that's true. i think we need to be more precise and look at what the election means for long-term fiscal policy, what it means for monetary policy and what it
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means for the fiscal cliff because no matter who wins, the outcomes are different in those three different parts of the economy. so you look at long-term fiscal policy, the markets want to see an end to gridlock, for the last couple years republicans and democrats have not agreed on anything. in this scenario a romney win and republican sweep would be good for the markets because that increases chances we tackle entitlement reform and tax reform in the next couple years. if we have divided government, if president obama is reelected, the markets are going to be more cautious, they'll take a wait and see approach, can republicans and democrats come together. but if you look at monetary policy, it's reversed shall, an obama re-election would signal a continuation of the aggressive monetary policy the fed has undertaken. president obama's either going to reappoint chairman bernanke or appoint someone cut from the same cloth. governor romney said he'll take a more hawkish stance. we think a president romney will woo still nominate a centrist mainstream economist like a
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glenn hubbard but the markets will have to wait to see who president romney would set in the chair and i think a romney win would lead to a little bit more uncertainty on the monetary policy front rather than an obama victory which would lead to a continuation and finally if you look at the fiscal cliff we think in either scenario most of the fiscal cliff is going to get deferred, but the path to that deferral is different. romney republican sweep would probably be a very clean deferral. divided government probably will lead to more brinkmanship, more volatility toward the end of the year. the election is very important but it's not just the markets as a whole, different segments of the market will be affected differently depending on who wins. >> when you say a republican sweep you mentioned for fiscal policy and the fiscal cliff are you ta you canning about the house, talking about the senate? what happens if romney is elected president and the senate maintains its democratic majority? >> if romney is elected president and the senate goes democrat, then it's going to be a little bit more in the middle
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because we're not going to have the ability for the president to just do whatever he wants to do. now your political experts have been commenting that it really depends on turnout so if either candidate is able to drive their bases out to the polls, there's a good chance that the senate is going to go with whoever can motivate their bases. so we'll have to see, but a lot is riding on it. >> when it comes to monetary policy you laid out the very aggressive versus the, you may be more middle of the road. you i'm guessing think the middle of the road is the better policy when it comes to that? >> we do. certainly the fed has been extremely aggressive to try to get unemployment down to boost the economy. we don't think a big departure from that makes sense at this point. if a very hawkish fed chairman were put in place and they very aggressively brought the liquidity out of the system, that would likely tip us back into recession, so that's why we don't think even a president romney even though he's been hawkish on the campaign trail we think he recognizes what's at stake. he wants the economy to grow.
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he's likely going to appoint a mainstream economy whois ist wh going to deviate dramatically. the uncertainty on who he would appoint rather than the continuity under obama. >> do you think that has been something he'd back away from? >> i think he's made it so clear day one he would label china a currency manipulator, i'm not sure how he can back away from that though i'm not sure what that label will physically do and what it will trigger. china could argue america is a currency manipulator with our easy money policy just as much as we can argue the opposite. >> you say we, neel, and these are moderate views, when you say we, are you talking about your little equity group out there? >> i'm talking about pimco, within the umbrella of pimco. >> you're throwing el arian and gross are letting you say the
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moderate things about the economy? >> they're moderate although they lean differently than i lean. >> that's an understatement. mcculley he's at the mountaintop in the lotus position, he leans to the left a little? >> he's no longer here. >> he's there in presence. you're in california. is there any businesses left at all in that state? >> there are quite a few. go to silicon valley, los angeles, san francisco. this is still the engine of innovation for the u.s. economy. >> they're making it tough on you. >> we could be doing better, that's true. >> so neel, when you say that this does lift some immediate uncertainty but you're not sure what it means beyond that, what do you think the market does between now and the end of the year, let's say? maybe not this week but between now and the end of the year under a reelected president obama or under a newly elected mitt romney? >> well, i think under reelected
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president obama, i would expect to see volatility increase especially as it relates around the fiscal cliff. we need to see them come together, divided government needs to work together. they have not worked together very well over the past couple years so the markets will take a wait and see approach and there's a good chance there will be fighting and brinkmanship until the last second for the fiscal cliff. republican sweep it's more likely they'll kick the can down the road for six months or a year so i would expect to see marginally less volatility in the near term. >> how would you position ahead of things if you're looking at the polls it's hard to make a solid guess on what's going to happen. >> it is. once again in equities we're selective in the names we're buying, we tend to buy high quality companies that are market leaders that are going to be more resilient not just due to political uncertainty but due to the various macro economic risks still out there, whether it's europe, the issues at home, china slowing down or the middle east, we're still being selective in the names we're
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buying. i wish i could tell you it's all clear, just pile into the markets but we're being more cautious. >> okay. neel. >> you're an important man, we'll buy key man life insurance out there on you.. >> the last one in the state? >> to keep him at pimco, the one, you know, at least balances the rest of it out a little bit. you're very important. >> thank you, joe. so are you. >> thanks. oh, i know, believe me. anyway, thanks neel. much more to come from guest host jack welch, founder of the jack welch management institute at streyer university and up next the millions are still without power in new york and new jersey, including me and that continues to cause long lines at gas stations. up next we'll talk to john eichberger, director of motor fuels at the national association of convenience stores. >> tomorrow your money, your vote. special election edition of "squawk" from 5:00 to 7:00 p.m. eastern.
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joe, becky and andrew will bring you the latest polling news from across the country, plus interviews with business leaders and investors, and reports from the swing states, a special election edition of "squawk box" starting tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. eastern.
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gas prices have been falling but it hasn't been easy for folks to get it in the areas that were hit by hurricane sandy. don't we know this well. cnbc's kate kelly joins us now more. kate, it's got to be better. i just could see that it was better and you were right out in front of all this last week. it's a little easier. i don't know, i think some supplies came in. maybe it's the odd/even stuff but at least in new jersey you can get it a little easier. >> reporter: you know, i think the answer might be moderately better. the part of new jersey i'm standing in this morning should really be the seat of the action in terms of ships bringing fresh fuel supplies in to the new york harbor. you can see behind me as well as trucks bringing and pipelines bringing supplies to the gas storage terminaling around this area but activity has been
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somewhat muted in recent days i guess because of power outages and continued infrastructural hurdles in this area. barges have been bringing in fuel since thursday and the military trucked in 8 million gallons of fuel over the weekend which should have been more than enough to address what goldman sachs has predicted will be a 7 million barrel shortfall in the next ten days or so, but the gas lines remain long and tempers are flaring. big part of the problem is the gas terminal infrastructure remains badly damaged. refined products are transported and held until trucks and ships can pick them up for delivery to gas stations and airports. power outages, flooding and physical damage has knocked the buildings out and it's a long process getting them online. by this weekend a handful were up and running in a partial basis. in new jersey where we were broadcasting last week operators
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finally got their truck racks going saturday after days of working to appease their concerned customers but business was slower than expected according to one company official and he's not quite sure why. some of these facilities were battered by the storm and it's going to take a while, joe, to get especially the marine terminals where the barges come in and the supplies are piped out, up and running. >> all right, we're going to talk to a gentleman that knows a lot about this, leave your ifb in, for more we're joined by john eichberger, vice president of government relations for the national association of convenience stores and a trade group for an industry that sells 80% of the nation's gasoline. john, last week we were talking, having a debate about backup generators for gas stations and we found out a lot, number one it's really hard to get a, to make it safe since it's different for a gas station to use a generator, but it seems
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like part of the problem we had was you can't pump the gas if you don't have power. are there a lot of regulations that make it hard for your participants to have a generator or do we need to have regulation that mandates them to have a generator? what's the answer? >> i don't know that it's necessarily regulatory impediments to having generators. generators for a convenience store are expensive, 20, 30, maybe more thousand dollars per unit to run a convenience store. >> what about just for the gas, though, not let the milk go sour but what about just for the gas. >> you still need to spend several thousand dollars. >> okay, several thousand, doesn't sound like that much money, they'd make that back in selling the gas on the days they're closed. >> not necessarily. convenience stores make a penny two a gallon selling gasoline and over the course of a year they make $30,000 and $40,000 pre-tax profit overall. say $10,000 to be conservative,
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when are you going to run that, how often. you look and see how often do you lose power? maybe every couple years, maybe every five years. that's a heavy investment to make when you're not sure how often you'll need it or ever make any type of return on it. >> i guess that answers it. other than you need power to run and a lot of gas stations are taken out of the supply chain, what else has been happening to cause this, john? >> you've got the pipelines down, you've got the terminal infrastructure your reporter was just talking about, the new york harbor under duress, you have a lot of problems in the market area. one thing that happened last week which is helpful, epa relieved the rfg requirements that gave the stores that were open for business the opportunity to send their trucks over to other markets, get additional supplies and that did help. but keep in mind we had some stores reporting 200% increase
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in demand right before the storm. if you have 20,000 gallons in storage capacity and you double your demand in a couple days and then a storm hits and you can't resupply, all those stores are starting from a negative perspective in terms of supply and so getting supply back to the markets even when you have power is still going to take some time. >> john, if you were king of the world and you could go back pre-storm, is there anything that could have been done in rance of the storm to put us in better place after the storm passed? >> i don't think so. i talked to a couple people over the weekend, could we have done some more? i guarantee you every single operator out there, every terminal, every refinery will say what can we do to shore up our system to make us more protected by the types of events. the fact of the matter is in the farkt you a market you have a finite amount of ability. you can't stockpile more than you have storage capacity for. if you go three or four days
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without getting any resupply it really puts you behind the eight ball. >> john, the reason there was that sharp increase in demand over the last couple of days before the storm is because we knew this was coming and so consumers got out, filled up their tanks, filled up their gas tanks, their handheld gas tanks and car tanks. there's no way that they could have increased the number of trucks coming to some of the local gas stations just so that they had the gas or weren't at least dealing with the supply shortage? >> well i guarantee you that when they were possible to get more tanker trucks to deliver fuel to a gas station they were doing so, but again, we only have a certain number of trucks, certain number of hours of operations they could run per day to get supply back to the stores. you figure most stores depending on what their through-put is, maybe get a delivery once a day, once every other day. some get two or three deliveries a day depending on how busy they are. it's hard to get the increase when everybody is calling for
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supplies and they're running as fast as they can but there is a certain limitation to how quickly they can resupply and any time you have that run on consumer demand, getting more product to the station is the number one priority of that store, because if you are out of gas, you're out of business so they want to refill their tankers but there's only a certain number of trucks that can do that. >> when is it going to be ready, john? >> you know what? i think the news over the weekend is positive, colonial is back on, buckeye is back on, terminals are opening. it will take a little more time. more power is flowing into the market which is great so i think we'll get to normal a little bit faster than we may have expected a week ago. >> all right, great. i'm hearing that -- anyway, thanks, john. see you later. wireless and broadband companies will have to be mandated to have backup generators. why not gas stations is my point. coming up, much more from guest host jack welch. first we are one day away from the presidential election, we'll gauge the market's interest in each presidential candidate and
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here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. breaking news crossing the tape on morgan stanley. paul taubman, co-president announcing he'll be retiring at the end of the year.
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paul taubman has been a long time banker to comcast and perhaps more importantly was seen as possibly a potential ceo candidate at morgan stanley. also's spent 30 years there and was its largest individual shareholder so an employee who is its largest individual shareholder stepping down. i've known paul for many, many years and i know a lot of people on wall street will be watching that bun. becky? let's get an update on the power outages and transit issues resulting from sandy. jackie deangelis joins us. >> for the first time in 30 years a gas rationing system is in effect throughout 12 counties and the largest port on the east coast, over 185 billion dollars of cargo moves through new york and new jersey annually. coned restored power to about
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80% of customers. still 92,000 remain without power in burouhs of new york city. walmart donating to new yorkers in need, pepsico as well. >> thank you very much, jackie. we appreciate it. when we come back setting the stage for the winner of tomorrow's presidential election we'll outline the economic challenges for the next few years and talk about how the market would react to a win from either candidate. right now look at u.s. equity futures, markets are under a little bit of pressure, s&p futures down by over 5 points. "squawk" will be right back. [ female announcer ] i found the best cafe in the world.
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welcome back to "squawk box," making headline this is morning, southern company is reporting weaker than expected third quarter earnings in revenue, that was before the bell today. the atlanta-based electricity company says results were hurt by milder than normal weather and an uncertain economy. else where, rockwell automation quarterly earnings there and sales topped wall street estimates. this company makes factory
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automation equipment input costs climbed during the period and shares of transocean are getting a boost this morning after the company reported a higher than expected profit for the third quarter, pre-market trading up $1.52. let's talk jobs and the economy, steve liesman is with us with the latest about what economists are saying about last week's jobs report and more importantly hurricane sandy. which one is more important? >> they're equally important. what we saw was the economy continuing to improve in october going into sandy but right now what's happening is they're bracing for the effects of sandy. let's think about what some folks have said, sandy eliminates any doubt, if there was any that the fed would exteex extend its assets into the first quarter. morgan stanley is saying that it may lower its gdp forecast, which is already low at 1% for
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the fourth quart and first quarter of 2013 from 1% down. they counted it up. most economists see economic improvement into october. macro advisers raising its third quarter tracking forecast from not 2% anymore, 2.5% not that great but something to write home about maybe, it is maintaining the 1.25% note number for the fourth quarter. ubs taking its first crack at 2014 gdp and saying it may get up to all the way to 3%. they're a little bit ahead of the street for next year. i know, jack, you're smirking. nothing to write home, 3% for 2013. >> were you smirking? >> i didn't think i was. >> i would be smirking if i were you. i mean it's not that big a deal. 7%. the interesting thing about the ubs forecast though, a couple things, they are saying that the unemployment rate goes down to 7% but inflation ticks up 2.5% on core gdp. one more thing i want to show
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you, the reasons why ubs is saying things will improve, this is looking at the lag spillover effects from qe, looking at the banks continuing to expand their balance sheets, with he saw that in the survey, the housing numbers improving, growth and the idea of energy being an issue which jack has been talking about. guys we have polling data, i don't know if you've gotten to the econ data, here we go. i know we floated it. here's what people are saying about leadership, the economy and which presidential candidate, not much change at all. what the data show is that president obama has an edge on leadership, 46-42. romney has the edge on improving the economy. you remember that's a reversal from the stuff we did back in the summer, there we go, creating jobs, romney 47-42, and then you see on the issue of leadership, 46-42 obama-romney. is the economy recovering, just
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over the half way point, 52% of the public say the economy is recovering, 45% say not. it is very interesting to think about what impact the economy will have on this election. you would think the worse the economy, the better it is for romney. >> right. it's the economy, stupid, right? >> but we've been talking to economists, they think the nation is so polarized that people more and more come to the table with their political views and impose that on their views of the economy. and i'm looking at this, i just got the data this morning and i'll start doing this during the day, the effect of unemployment on electoral choice, not what you would think. you would think the more unemployed the more they break for romney. my initial read of this thing, the more unemployed the more they break for obama. so it's a different world from the world we're used to, from the world we're used to polling. you think it's the economy, stupid, it may now be, i'm not sure about this, it may be it's politics, stupid, and then it's
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the economy. >> wow. it's a very different game than we were looking at when bill clinton was running. >> i think that's right. i don't know, jack, what you think about that but it's crazy. >> well it could be if you're unemployed you might be more assured of more benefits. >> under obama. >> under obama he'll give me more extend the unemployment from 99 days to some other time. >> i'll give you one piece of data we've been tracking, we asked have you been unemployed or do you know somebody in your household unemployed, that number is 24%, which is down just a little bit from when we asked it of all adults, this is of likely voters it's now 24% so it has an impact. it's a sizeable part of the electorate. >> steve, thank you very much. >> pleasure. when we come back we'll have your guide to the trading week ahead, the election obviously headlining the calendar this week. we'll tell what you to expect after election day and talk prospects for fixing the fiscal cliff. "squawk" will be right back.
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up. a short word that's a tall order.
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welcome back to "squawk box" everyone. the futures are indicated lower. the dow futures down by about 34 points, s&p futures down by 4.25 points, nasdaq futures a little weaker as well. in our headlines apple says it has sold 3 million ipads in the first three days since the launch of the new ipad mini and the fourth generation ipad that includes sales of both of those new products, but again that is all ipads. joe? let's check on the markets,
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cnbc's rick santelli joins us from the cme in chicago. i don't know what happened friday, rick, i don't know what's going on with the euro today. i've seen all kinds of stuff that may or may not be related to the election. can you tell me definitively anything that has people taking positions based on what happens tomorrow? >> you know, i don't know that i can, joe. all's i can tell you is that there's strange phenomenon going on across the world. you look at germany, their two-year yield is back in negative territory, i look at turkey, minus two basis points in germany, you're at 6 7/8 on the two-year in turkey and they're celebrating because that's an historic all-time low because they actually had one of the rating agencies i believe it was fitch upgrade their rating first time it's not in, first time in investment territory i
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believe since the early to mid '90s. as far as our country goes i think that the lower yields or the three-week low in tens is very hard to put into a category regarding the election. many used the dollar index as their posterchild that maybe the challenger in the form of mitt romney might be on course to take over pennsylvania avenue by some of the strength it's exhibited. i'm not sure if that's a european effect or a political effect. >> rick, let me, you know, never mind with what you feel as the guy standing down there that's traded, you know, bonds and things for years. how about the founder of the tea party. in your heart of hearts you look at what nate silver says, you look at what, where intrade is and you look at ohio, what do you really think is happening and going to happen in ohio? is it really look dim there for romney, do you know? >> all's i can tell you i have a hard time thinking any of the
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polling material earlier discussed in my opinion is going to be accurate. i think the country showed me what i would think i'm going to see again tomorrow and that was in the midterm elections and i think the electricity for some fiscal responsibility hasn't diminished and it hasn't disappeared. i think it's redefined the challenger's party. if you look at governors, state houses and some of the lower level races and positions outside of the senate or the congress and the presidency, you see this in a much more aggressive on the ground scenario. so i think tomorrow's going to be very is imlaare to 2010 midterms. >> that will be a long night for president obama if that's true. timed dilation, length contraction both are bad. 2008 historic sweeping in the change, the bush fatigue, two years later, 2010, sweeping out all these, you know, all the liberals in congress.
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2012, why can't it switch back like it did in 2008? only takes two years. >> i think the country has a certain personality and if i'm right i think this personality exhibited itself that we are all very proud to elect barack obama in '08, i think many thought he would be not a blue state, not a red state but a united state type of unifier and i think that is the single issue where many i talk to seem to be disappointed and i think beyond that, the direction of the country to have debates about employment, whether it was good or whether it was bad, when it's close to 8% or to have discussions about our growth in the economy whether it's european gdp levels and not u.s. gdp levels, you and i do this every day. we take it for granted. lot of people would like to see more horsepower in their lives with regard to income, status, success, and i think it's clear
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over the last 236 years how jobs get created in this country and i think this election will take us back to our roots. >> you're ready for the election tomorrow. i know that i am. can we at least agree on that, that it's time, right? >> oh, yeah. i think it's time. it also shows what a great country we have. >> we do. >> i think people are very excited that i talk to. this is the chance that everybody gets to make a difference in the outlook of the country and however it turns out there's no takebacks and i think this election is more to put things more towards what history dictates as to our fiscal scenario in this country. >> i think john roberts said you no he what? you don't like obama care, i'm not going to do this, you do it and i think he threw it back in the people's court as well, and we'll see whether that's true, too, because that's a hugely unpopular piece of legislation and this is, tomorrow depending on what happens tomorrow, it's either the land of the law
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forever or it's not. >> you know, very few pieces of legislation passed on christmas eve without any republican votes have proved to work out well. >> all right, thank you. thanks, rick santelli. our guest host is jack welch, founder of the jack welch management institute at streyer university. interesting points there. i don't know. 2010 was unbelievable what happened if you remember. don't you get the feeling that the tea party influence has waned since then? >> without question. they haven't had the visibility that they had before but there's a feeling out there that rick says that this is going to be in my view very close obama victory or a very large romney victory. >> why do you say that? >> because i think there's either an underground non-polled population that's going to move like a wave they did in '10 or
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more of the status quo and obama will eke out a victory. i don't think it's going to be an obama blowout. i may be wrong but i have no more than anybody else on this one but that's my feeling. >> it's been interesting watching the polls, jack, because the argument for people who think that the polls are overtesting, they're taking too big of a democratic sampling. >> from '08. >> right, from 2008, that's why i scratch my head, i can't figure out which direction to think it will happen. >> but the polls weren't in '10 anywhere near what happened. polls are a good test but they're only as good, they're all plus or minus 3%. that changes the game. >> there's people that like to take the other side of a favorite trade and a lot of people are pointing out the consensus is it's very close. some people say that means it's a huge obama victory.
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jim cramer's point. >> jim cramer is a better than me. >> oh you didn't sell any of that ge. you're probably right, he is a better one. all right, man, that was -- never mind, i take that back. more from jack in just a bit. coming up it's the last trading session before election day, up next we're going to check in with jim cramer for what to expect at the opening bell. election day will mean a special "squawk box" we'll be on the air a lot tomorrow from 6:00 to 9:00 in the morning, but we'll be back for two hours starting at 5:00 p.m. eastern time through 7:00 p.m. our colleague also pick up the coverage for the rest of the evening. you don't want to miss it. ♪
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welcome to the world leader in derivatives. welcome to superderivatives. welcome back to "squawk box" everyone. let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer, david faber standing by and gentlemen, we've been talking about the election this morning. jim, i don't know if you just heard us talking about your calls on this. >> of course i heard. i thank jack welch for saying i'm a good investor and jack is dead right on regulation and natural gas. i wish one of these candidates believed that because i think he's right. i think the swing states go
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obama and that's how i come up with that, i think a couple other obama surprises which is why i thinkby ma could win big. when you say these things you think it's political but i don't see the surge people keep saying for romney. if i saw it then i certainly wouldn't be thinking it's going to be a big win for obama. >> would it surprise you though personally i look at it and i don't think anything would necessarily surprise me this time around. i have a tough time trying to get a real feel for what's happening. >> i keep going over the states everyone says are really close. we came back from ohio two weeks ago, just don't feel that ohio is that close. i feel ohio is an obama state. i feel pennsylvania, some people say pennsylvania is in play. five weeks ago it wasn't in play. i don't think it is in play. i think it's an obama state, labor, minorities, women, all i see over and over again is that men favor obama, white men favor obama. there's just not enough -- >> favor romney.
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>> i mean favor romney. there's not enough white men out there to swing romney. that's how i feel. >> the journal points out today they think the end of the election is a win for the markets no matter what happens because it takes some uncertainty off the table. what do you two think? >> i totally agree. i feel like we are beleaguered by the election. i would love to go back to fundamentals and worry about greece. >> do you think we'll talk about the fiscal cliff wednesday morning? >> i think that a resolution will enable one party to be able to blink, i hope, or at least be able to say, look, we have to come together. the fiscal cliff is one that is -- i keep thinking it's much more of a fiscal hill that's been the new slope. anything that says, okay, look some party is in jeopardy or some people is in jeopardy will make somebody blink. i think we're a great country and that we'll solve this. >> guys, we'll see you in a few minutes coming up at the top of the hour. thank you. coming up, the last word from our guest host jack welch.
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>> announcer: tomorrow it's election day and "squawk box" has you covered. up to the minute news and analysis from our reporters and political strategists and we'll hear from business leaders and investors on their expectations for the next four years and a solution to the fiscal cliff. don't miss "squawk box" starting tomorrow at 6:00 a.m. eastern.
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back in the day, a company says that its drug for a rare genetic disorder met its primary end point in late-stage study. the company now plans to seek approval for the drug early next year. >> let's get back to our guest host, jack welch. we talked about politics. i want to talk to you about sandy the storm and mayor bloomberg and the marathon. you're a management guru. did the mayor do the right thing with the marathon? >> i think absolutely. i think if you're a politician to run that marathon with scenes in staten island and breezy point and other points, it was the only decision. i think that people that run the marathon that are running the
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marathon and organized the marathon were quite careless in their comments about the plight of the marathon versus the plight of the people. >> i was stunned. >> eventually he did the right thing. >> did he get credit for changing his his view on the end? >> i think he did the only thing he could do. as chris christie did. he was totally right in getting funds for his state at the same time he came out and supported mitt romney from the beginning to the end. >> here's a political question. should chris christie have obama come to new jersey? mayor bloomberg decided not to. >> because he had traffic mess and everything else. he could do it easier down there. i think they both handled it just right. i really do. now, what i would like to talk about though is why i'm so pro-governor romney and why i'm
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so partisan in this particular election. i haven't been that way since carter and reagan to this extent. the reason why is there are four fundamental things in this country that we're facing. one as i mentioned the fiscal cliff. one is the regulatory wall. and then we have more indirectly. the middle east from syria to egypt. we don't know who our friends are and what the game is and europe. europe isn't fixed yet. europe is kicking the can down. they can't fix it without a devaluation of some kind. they can keep putting money into that. what does that mean to take the first one? the cliff. you need somebody who is a uniter and not a divider. this president proved that he's the class warfare divider. >> here's a cliff question. some people say that if romney wins, the good news is we won't
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hit the cliff at the end of the year. the bad news is we'll have uncertainty for nine months because we'll have to address the issue in the fall. is that a better outcome than if obama is in office? i don't know the answer. >> we need to bring people together. we need a uniter for that. we go to the regulatory wall that we talked about. we need somebody who understands the role of regulation in a capitalistic system. the president doesn't have the foggiest idea and he delegates that. >> it's more of the people he's given power to. >> because he doesn't have anything to bring to the party. he delegates it. then you go to the middle east, the stronger we are as a country and i believe with a romney election we'll get a 3% to 4% gdp fairly quickly and stronger we are and stronger we are as a nation will be better at dealing with that. >> i want to go back. >> you have about a minute.
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>> let me get four and i'll give you five. there's a couple minutes there. the fourth one is europe. we can't be a broke u.s. and deal with europe. we have got to have a stable fundamentally sound financial position and romney the uniter and guy who knows business will do this. we can't have four more years of this. >> what if we did? what if we do have four more years? how bad will that set us back? >> we would have -- >> can you come back from that? >> very hard from where we'll be in four more like this with 47 million food stamps and all of the other -- >> 87 million. >> he wants to transform a great country. mitt romney wants to rebuild a great country. those are two different things. >> when you say you have 3% to 4% growth in this country, how quickly and how and why? >> in the fourth quarter of next year, housing will give us a boost no matter who is elected.
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you'll get this energy issue really going and that's going to make every u.s. industry more competitive. i'm telling you, the energy issue is a manhattan project. that's how you got to think about it. it's the biggest thing in the world. it changes our whole position in the world. energy is the life blood of a society. >> do you believe 4% is ever possible again? >> i hope it's possible. >> what do you think? do you think the government infrastructure investment would do it? you don't think getting out of the way is 4%. >> my view is that it's going to be a tough slog for the next four years any way. hopefully we help on margins but i don't know. i'm not coming to tell you who is going to do this. >> you have never seen country unleashed. you were born in '82. >> i hope he's right.